The consequences of the war in Ukraine and the prospects for its end
Zoom discussion organized by SD Platform in cooperation with the Representative Office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine.
Everyone is less secure now. Institutions are not effective. Sanctions seemed to be effective, but Russia is adapting to them and hasn't changed its behavior. The West has reached the maximum level of sanctions. But now we have space for absolutely new solutions. EU membership can be a starting point to a new security system in Europe. The perception of price both sides pay in the war changes every day. Security guarantees for Ukraine are important for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine can exchange NATO membership for some credible security guarantees. Another option is EU membership, which is not all about security though. One more option is bilateral guarantees from the US. Territorial integrity is a very difficult issue. One of the ways is to make sure that Russia withdraws to the pre-24 February borders, but the Donbas and Crimea issue will not be resolved by that. The agreement can contain financial compensation. A more developed version of the Minsk Process might be a way. The conflict is still not ripe for a negotiated settlement. Opportunities for it will appear after a new wave of the escalation. The role of mediators will be more important when both sides are ready to negotiate meaningfully. High risks are there for Europe too, as opposed to the situation of 2014-2021.
Mykola Kapitonenko
PhD, Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations of Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University.
The war will end in a compromise in any case. The sides will most likely talk about neutrality because it is perceived more or less positively in both capitals. But this is still just a general idea. A compromise is very unlikely on Donbas and Crimea. Russians do not plan to pull back from the south of Ukraine. They are building alternative local authorities there. So if we have a new contact line giving Russia more territories than before 2022, then any agreement with Russia will be temporary. Peace negotiations will renew later after the battle of Donbas. We need to broaden our policy to previously non-covered regions, like Southeast Asia.
Ilya Kusa
Analyst, Ukrainian Institute for the Future
We can no longer hide behind procedures and bureaucracy. The EU's relations with North Africa and the Balkans are also influenced now. With autocrats, the incremental step-by-step strategy doesn't work. We need to convince our governments that people in Europe are ready to make some sacrifice for victory. To start a war you need one person. To end it you need two, including the one who started it. We missed an opportunity to change the UN in the 1990s. The candidate status should be serious, not just a false promise. The EU should be more clear, because it has not encouraged the Western Balkans to reforms. Ukraine used to be too far away for many Europeans. Now we have a momentum to change it. We need credibility from the EU but also a strategy to involve every citizen. Otherwise populists like Le Pen will exploit the resentment of many Europeans.
Thijs Reuten
Member of the European Parliament, (PvdA)
We need to start discussing the reconstruction effort. You can not bet on the US here. The EU should lead the way. That is why we should deepen relations. It is extremely unwise to cancel a visit of the German President. Blaming Germany is misplaced criticism. It will lead to social antagonism. Hungarian elections were decided by the war. People believed that the opposition would draw Hungary into the war with Russia. The question is whether Ukraine wants to move towards EU membership or not. Constantly insulting Germany, which is the most influential member state of the EU, is not good tactics. Neither Germany, nor the EU caused this war. The Minsk agreement was the last hope to avoid war and the question is why this was not respected.
Laszlo Andor
FEPS Europe Secretary General
It is said here that the war in Ukraine is a proxy war between China and the US. That is a warning on what China can do to Taiwan. This conflict can be a precursor to what China will do.
Howard Lee
Member of Perak State Legislative Assembly, Democratic Action Party
JUSOS pressures SPD to impose the oil and gas embargo. We need to work on that further on.
Lasse Rebbin
Deputy Federal Chairman of the Jusos
Russia is trying to bring back the bipolarity of the world. Many people don't understand it, even though they commiserate with the victims in Ukraine. Russia is putting pressure on the countries dependent on importing wheat.
Moez Ben Dhia
Consultant Manager in Organization, Projects and Regulations, MAX BARREL-DORF CONSULTING France
The Polish government met with AfD and Le Pen to found a union. The other day they go to Ukraine. It is hypocrisy. The efforts of the Polish are theirs, not of the ruling government.
Pawel Starczak
Foreign Affairs Representative, Młoda Lewica
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