Review: Are Elections Possible Before the War Ends, and Who is Likely to Win?

Reasons (Not) to Hold Elections

Drawing on a comprehensive October survey by the Razumkov Centre, Romaniuk notes a significant public desire for political change in Ukraine. Only 27% of respondents believe there is an existing political force that could responsibly govern post-war Ukraine. However, despite this demand for new leadership, there is no immediate risk of a social upheaval due to current distrust in the political establishment. Interestingly, Romaniuk suggests that Ukraine’s “everyday reality of crisis” may actually reinforce the legitimacy of the current administration.

Regarding which sectors new political leaders might emerge from, nearly half of respondents indicated a preference for military figures, followed closely by representatives from civil organizations, volunteer networks, and the technical and humanitarian sectors. Only 17% trust the current political parties to lead.

Since the beginning of the war, the unity between citizens and the government has gradually faded. As Ukrainians seek justice, they increasingly look to those they believe have already demonstrated loyalty to the nation, especially those who have fought on the front lines.

On the sidelines of the conference, discussions centered on the processes that must be directed towards the reconstruction of infrastructure, ensuring economic stability through support of the industrial sector and social protection, attracting and distributing international financial resources with the aim of creating jobs, and prioritizing a people-centric approach.

A Place for New Forces

In the third year of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainians place their trust primarily in the Armed Forces, the State Emergency Service, volunteer networks, and the Security Service of Ukraine. By contrast, most major state institutions suffer from highly negative approval ratings.

Romaniuk highlights President Zelenskyi as an exception, one of the few top officials with a positive rating (48.5% trust vs. 44.5% distrust). However, this is a notable drop from the 90% trust level he held at the start of the invasion, reflecting a general decline.

Notably absent from the survey Romaniuk refers to is Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and now Ukraine's ambassador to the UK. According to a summer survey conducted by the SD Platform, Zaluzhnyi ranks as the most trusted public figure among young Ukrainians, with 35% indicating their trust in him. This positions him as a leading figure for a potential "new patriotic party."

Entering the third year of full-scale war, a significant portion of the Ukrainian public expresses a desire for a political transformation. Nevertheless, security remains the top priority, and most citizens do not consider elections feasible while active fighting persists.

Over time, the gap between the public and political elites, which had initially narrowed at the war’s outset, has gradually widened. This shift may open the door for representatives from the military, volunteer groups, and civil society to take a leading role in Ukraine’s future political landscape.